Black Box Thinking
Matthew Syed

Summary

We're all trapped in our old frameworks of thinking and how to think differently

Rating: 5/5

Notes

Success hinges on how we react to failure

Learn from the mistakes of others. You can’t live long enough to make them all yourself - Eleonore Roosevelt

You must take into account all data, even that you do not see, if you are going to learn from adverse incidents

The paradox of success is it’s built on failure

Knowledge doesn’t progress by only looking at confirmatory data but also contradictory data

Set up systems where feedback happens quickly and errors are celebrated

Systems that do not engage in failure struggle to learn

Cognitive dissonance: when our beliefs are challenged by evidence

Intellectuals have a higher cognitive dissonance because they stand to lose the most from their false predictions

Memories are not reliable and are often distorted

Markets work because many businesses fail (creative destruction)

Narrative fallacy: create stories about what we see after the even

• The world is more complex than many people think

Fail early and often. Don’t chase perfectionism, chase iteration

Success is not about intelligence and talent, it’s about evolving

When presented with evidence that challenges our beliefs, we tend to reject the evidence of the messenger rather than change our beliefs

Look for marginal gains - use RCTs in small areas to look for minor improvements that could make huge changes in outcomes

Innovation is creativity working in response to failure

Encouragement of debate stimulates more ideas

Creating is synthesis of existing ideas, often leading to ground breaking innovation

Key ingredient that characterizes winners over pioneers is discipline

Grit is one of the best predictions of long term success

The social world is more complex than the natural world

We need to reclassify failure as learning and not punish people for it

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